Iowa Republican caucuses recap

Now that THAT'S out of the way, here are my thoughts on the vote last night.

Huckabee obviously got the boost he needed to stay alive. However, Iowa has a strange electorate that isn't easily extrapolated to other states. It can't really be called liberal or conservative (it voted for Gore in 2000 and Bush in 2004). There is a large share of Evangelical conservatives, which is obviously where he got his support. However, the Republican party's strongholds are (basically) southern and western states. Southern Evangelicals don't fall for Huck's goofy populism on economic issues or his pansified foreign policy stances. They are much more rounded conservatives. I have a hard time believing that he can win in the south (and with South Carolina coming shortly, I imagine he'll falter there). In addition, voters in western states are small-government types, so he would fall flat there. Thankfully, he doesn't have much chance of winning the nomination. Let's not forget that Pat Robertson, of all people, finished second in Iowa in 1988. That's right: PAT ROBERTSON. That's why I don't put too much stock in Iowa's results.

Mitt Romney finished second. It's disappointing to him since he put so much effort into Iowa, but it's still a nice finish. He should do well in New Hampshire on Tuesday, and he's still got the strongest national operation. He'll be around and still have a good shot at winning the nomination.

Fred finished third, just ahead of McCain. Fred got in late and didn't exactly blitz the state with advertising. In addition, the media has pooped all over him from the start of his campaign, so this is a pretty good finish. He should win South Carolina, as the more people see of him, the more they like him. Plus, South Carolina will absolutely appreciate his type of well-rounded conservatism.

McCain's finish is pretty nice given that he didn't spend much time there, and he will do well in New Hampshire. Luckily, New Hampshire's almost (and maybe more so) as goofy as Iowa. They love "mavericks" or whatever, and they went for McCain big in 2000 against Bush. Let's also not forget that the mainstream media wets themselves over him, so that's a nice advantage. However, I just can't believe that Republicans are big enough masochists to nominate a man who has made a career out of beating them up. At least that's my hope.

Rudy finished 6th, but he spent almost no time or effort there. He's been running a national campaign on big, serious issues. The more I hear from him on issues like national security and the size of government, the more I like him. His immigration views are still pretty bad, though. His gambit of blowing off everything until February 5 (when there are a bunch of big states he could do very well in) may pay off. We'll see.

Oh yeah, Ron Paul finished 5th. No chance, though.