For what it's worth, here's what I think about the Democratic caucuses from last night.
I don't have a lot of original ideas about what happened, but basically Obama was able to break through Hillary's sense of inevitability. A few months ago, Hillary was planning on running a national campaign and barely doing anything in Iowa, as her lead everywhere was huge. Then she realized that she could put Obama away by campaigning hard in Iowa and beating him soundly.
Well THAT didn't work out. The main problem, I think, is that people don't like Hillary. By that, I mean she is an unpleasant person. The more people see of her, the less they like her. That's kind of amazing, since she's been very well-known since 1992, but her retail campaigning skills are so bad that it turns people off.
What's more, Iowa (as I'll explain more in my Republican summary) is a quirky state. Obama and his message fits in very well there. Will it continue? I don't know. Hillary still has the best organization nationally, along with tons of money. However, with her sense of inevitability broken, it just may cascade for Obama, carrying him to the nomination.
I haven't written about Edwards because if he can't win Iowa, he won't win anywhere else, either. He's done.
Friday, January 4, 2008
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