Thursday, October 4, 2007

MLB playoff mini-preview and Cubs comments

After reading Baseball Prospectus' playoff coverage so far, one thing is clear:

NL : AL as
NFC : AFC or
NBA East : NBA West

For you logic-syntax-deficient folks out there, I'm trying to say that the NL is significantly weaker overall than the AL. It's been like this for a few years, but this year it's more obvious than ever. Why? Even last year (which I assumed would be the nadir of the NL in comparison to the AL), a case could be plausibly made that the Mets were even with the top AL teams. This year, no NL team is close.

Let's look at the NL playoff teams. The Diamondbacks were actually outscored this year, but had the best record in the league. That is very fluky, and it means they just aren't that good. The Phillies have a great core offensively, but then they lack depth in their lineup. Also, their pitching staff isn't too hot outside of Hamels. The Rockies have a nice overall team, but they lack impact players (Francis and Holliday notwithstanding). The Cubs actually are the best team, but even they don't have the great depth all over their roster the way the AL teams do.

Every playoff team in the American League is fairly even, with stud players all over their rosters and a lack of big weaknesses. On BP yesterday someone wrote (I can't remember who or where) thatthe next 4 AL teams are roughly comparable to the NL playoff teams, and I think that's about right. The Tigers would have had the best record in the NL, and the Mariners, Blue Jays, and Twins are about even with the Cubs, et all.

That said, the NL side is going to be more fun for me to watch because each team is so flawed.

As an aside, I love how the local media is hammering on Sweet Lou for pulling Zambrano last night and bringing in the bullpen. The mainstream sports media is about as stupid as the mainstream news media, as there are two things wrong with this reasoning. First, the Cubs scored 1 run. Yet after only giving up 3 in the whole game, it's the bullpen's fault they lost the game? They only scored 1 run! You aren't going to win many games when that happens, so blame the offense first.

Second, Marmol has been one of the best relievers in baseball this year, and he's the one who gave up the 2 runs. What would Joe Beatwriter have done, not used the Cubs best reliever? Of course not.

Anyway, it was still thoroughly enjoyable watching the Cubs lose, and I am confident they will lose this series. Let the chants of ONE HUN DRED! begin.

No comments: