Bill Barwell over at Football Outsiders has dedicated his column this week to predictions on over/under bets for the AFC teams. He uses the mean projections developed from KUBIAK (I think), which is their projection system, as a tool. He is willing to buck the projection where he thinks appropriate, though.
I don't really disagree with much, and I really like the idea of taking the under on the Chiefs and the over on the Raiders and Browns. It's far too easy for NFL teams' records to bounce around each year, and both of the last two teams mentioned have lots of young talent. I can easily see them going 7-9, at least.
For all of the reasons Barnwell gave, I can see the Chiefs ending up with the first pick in next year's draft. Their over/under of 7 feels like the betting public thinking about years of adequacy in KC and not seeing how it's all going to fall apart this year.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment